Month: October 2024

USC vs. Maryland: 20% of the Time, It Works Every Time

Posted on by commbro

Maryland vs. USC
October 19, 2024 at 1:05 pm
SECU Stadium, Minneapolis, College Park, MD: 43,013 (of 51,802)
Total Time: 3 hours 51 minutes

Somehow we’re here sitting on 3 straight losses, 0 wins in October, 0 Big Ten road wins, and still 0 true road wins after losing to a team that was 0-3 in conference play. For whatever reason, the team can only play one solid half of football and then immediately start struggling in the opposite half to choke away the game in the final seconds.

But maybe we’re being too optimistic by saying it was a good half. The first touchdown they scored wasn’t even impressive. It came from what was initially a missed field goal, but an illegal substitution penalty by Maryland converted the 4th down for USC to eventually score the touchdown.

Their third touchdown also required some assistance. The punt return and 15-yard personal foul penalty by Maryland had the offense set up at the Maryland 41-yard line. With only a minute left in the half, they could have run out of time had they not had such favorable field position.

On Maryland’s ensuing possession, USC sought to return the favor by giving them 15 yards on the unsportsmanlike penalty. Not be outdone, Maryland politely fumbled the ball on a perfectly fine snap just to take themselves out of field goal range and give up their possession.

Let’s not forget about Maryland’s missed field goal either. They converted two 4th-and-shorts (one by USC penalty), which set up a long field goal. Luckily, Maryland missed it.

And what the heck was that timeout at 1 second just to come back at kneel?

The second half was where things got ugly. Multiple times they had the ball and the ability to end the game with even a field goal, but kept struggling to put it away. The defense can only hold up so many times in a season when they’re constantly forced to be out on the field after another sub-25 yard drive (of which, an astounding 41% of the 83 drives qualify). That blocked field goal on 4th-and-1 allowing for a big return was nearly comical. Somehow they find a way to lose every game.

Are they getting to the point of learned helplessness? I wonder if they felt they were going to lose after that 2-point conversion was successful. Yes, the team may not have enough talent and depth, but when you’re in very favorable positions to win these one score leads in the 4th quarter, you have to win them…or at least not lose 80% of them. Even guessing on every single question on a standardized test should statistically net you better results than this.

Good/Badisms

Good: Perfect ball back shoulder placement in the end zone by Miller Moss and great catch by Kyron Hudson for the touchdown

Good: Perfect ball back shoulder placement in the end zone by Miller Moss and great catch one-handed catch by Ja’Kobi Lane for the touchdown

Bad: Lots of high throws by Moss, missing his receivers and the interception and 51-yard return that allowed Maryland an easy score

Good: Duce finally catching a pass in the 4th quarter and slammed it into the end zone

Good: The return of tight end, Lake McRee, showed some immediate impact with some key conversions on third down

Bad: Jaylin Smith against Maryland’s and the Big Ten’s statistical leader had some trouble, allowing long completions or committing PIs Good: Interception in the end zone on a 4th down that saved them from not only a touchdown, but forcing the offense to start inside the 20 again

Good/Bad: Kamari Ramsey batting a pass on 3rd-and-5 but then missing the open field tackle the very next play to allow a 4th down conversion

CommBro Breaker

Wish I had some better news, or optimistic outlook, but we may have to wait until next season for anything remotely worth seeing now that the ceiling is 9-4. Being able to finish with a better than last year would be nice. Losing so often really can’t help recruiting. It’s kind of weird place to be when your team could reasonably beat or lose to any team on the schedule and you wouldn’t be surprised.

Depressing Stat of the Week: USC is 16th place in the Big Ten right now. Right above 2-5 overall UCLA and 1-6 overall Purdue

Depressing Stat of the Week #2: Miller Moss is tied for 27th most interceptions in the nation out of the 396 QBs counted. He is tied for 3rd most in the Big Ten.

Uplifting Stat of the Week: Woody Marks has the 23rd most yards in the nation for running backs

Uplifting Stat of the Week #2: Quinten Joyner is averaging 9.09 yards per carry, which is 5th in the nation for running backs that have played in 75% of their team’s games.

Czaplicki Tracker Week 7: Eddie Czaplicki has fallen even further to #3 in average punt yards per game (49.4), with the FSU punter beating him by .03 yards per punt (49.43) for the #2 spot

Misleading Stat of the Week: USC has lost 100% of their games against Maryland…because this is the only one that they’ve ever played

USC vs. Penn State: All Tricks and Picks

Posted on by commbro

USC vs. #4 Penn State
October 12, 2024 at 12:40pm
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA: 75,250 (of 77,500)
Total Time: 3 hours 36 minutes

Here we are again with me writing about the third loss in four weeks. Not all losses are equal, though, and an overtime loss by a field goal to an undefeated #4 team is a heck of a lot better than a loss in regulation by a touchdown to an unranked 3-loss team. There are signs of improvement, but it’s not exactly a great place to be halfway through October. The Trojans are all but eliminated from playoff contention, barring some absolute improbable chaos of events. As much as I love to generate obscure stats, even I don’t want to do the math on this one.

In a strange turn of events, the Trojans played well in the first half and suffered in the second half. As a whole, we saw some growth: they ran the ball more when needed (to much success for both Woody Marks and Quinten Joyner), schemed some ways to neutralize the constant pressure for Miller Moss like moving the pocket and throwing some more screen passes to loosen up the pass rush. Yet, it was not enough to overcome some of the more disappointing parts.

There were plays almost as uninspired as my writing these days like run plays on 3rd and very long that was basically just settling for a field goal or trying to send the game to overtime instead of trying for field position for a field goal. And yet again we find a tight end giving a USC defense problems. This one player totaled more yards (221) than either the entire USC rushing (189) or passing (220) offense. This time, there’s no Grinch to blame.

Penn State busted out everything they could, with trick plays getting them the edge on several plays. They tried direct snaps to the tight end, double passes, using a snapper at the tackle spot as an eligible receiver, and maybe even some more that I may have forgotten. That’s not to say they weren’t picking up yards normally either. Penn State was able to exploit the seams between zones for some big gains to the tight end spot. Overall defensive performance: debatable—or baitable?

Not to be outdone, Lincoln Riley busted out his own trick plays. The first major one was a fake reverse for the first touchdown of the game. Somebody find the branch manager because Zachariah Branch has unfortunately been more useful as a decoy this season than a receiving or returning threat. What looked like a broken trick play still ended up being successful. Woody Marks was given the opportunity to set up the double pass, realized it was going to be blown up, and pulled it down to run for 21 yards. Between that and the “fumble” recovery from the defensive lineman, he has shown himself to be a ridiculously quick thinker and improviser.

The Penn State final drive in regulation saw two fourth down conversions with Drew Allar targeting cornerback John Humphrey’s side and completing both the 4th-and-7 and 4th-and-10 to Julian Fleming that ultimately tied up the game and put the pressure back on the Trojans. The 4th-and-10 was the most frustrating because the defensive lineman, Jamil Muhammad had his hands on Allar and just needed another moment for a sack. Depressing Stat of the Week: The USC defense is #122 in the nation in sacks per game (1) and have only 6 in total for the entire season so far. DSOTW #2: They’re also #120 in tackles for a loss per game (4).

And I’m quite aware I seem to have broken my own record again for late posts.

Good/Badisms

Good: Desman Stephans II, playing for his first meaningful snaps, getting not only an interception, but returned it 42 yards

Good: Easton Mascarenas-Arnold’s fingertip interception on the deflected pass

Bad: Miller Moss throwing too high, resulting in an interception and no field goal try as time was expiring in regulation

Bad: The missed 45-yard field goal that gave Penn State an easy shot to win in overtime

Good: Drew Allar, only threw 1 interception in 103 attempts this season prior to this game, but threw 3 against this USC defense, though one was just a last second heave for a shot at winning in regulation.

Good-ish (we’ll take what we can get): Red zone defense: only 2 touchdowns allowed on 6 red zone trips

Bad: A paltry 2 of 11 on third downs on the offensive side of the ball

Good: offensive PI on Penn State that forced them into a position to only take a field goal

CommBro Breaker

While the back half of the schedule is theoretically easier, the defense is now down two starters for the rest of the season: linebacker Eric Gentry and defensive end Anthony Lucas. This is on top of defensive lineman Bear Alexander deciding to sit out earlier in the season. In a defense that was already thin on depth, it will be interesting to see how D’Anton Lynn adjusts.

Uplifting Stat of the Week: USC is #6 in the nation in opponent third down conversion percentage (27.14%) and #1 in the Big Ten.

Czaplicki Tracker Week 6: Eddie Czaplicki has fallen back down to #2 in average punt yards per game (49.8) compared to Baylor’s Palmer Williams (52.2)

A Stat: Halfway through the season, the defense is allowing 13.6 points per game less than last season (#41 vs. #121), but are scoring 11.1 fewer points per game than last season (#52 vs. #3).

USC vs. Minnesota: That’s not very Lincoln of you and I am really disappointed

Posted on by commbro

Minnesota vs. #11 USC
October 5, 2024 at 4:40pm
Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN: 50,913 (of 50,805)
Total Time: 3 hours 16 minutes

Gophers can be a real problem for football. Back in high school, we used to play pickup football games on a field that was swiss-cheesed by a gopher. Tripping and injuries due to gopher holes was a common occurrence. Apparently Whac-a-Mole isn’t as easy as it looks. Complete tangent.

Y’all ever notice that some versions of this game make the “moles” look a lot more like gophers?

Maybe you’ve also noticed that the title is an amalgamation of recycled headlines, but then again, so are the criticisms. We’ve harped on this stuff all season:

  • slow first half starts
  • poor offensive line play in pass protection
  • Miller Moss being rushed and hit all the time
  • procedural penalties
  • receivers dropping balls at crucial moments
  • turnovers
  • red zone scoring issues

The weather wasn’t even cold or snowing. Yet, the offensive line continues to look like the Disney on Ice rendition, allowing the opposing defenses to consistently generate pressure with only 3-4 people on the pass rush. That leaves 8-9 people dropping into coverage, so on top of rushing poor Moss, he has to somehow get the ball out in a cluttered coverage to receivers that may just end up dropping it. This all took place after 2:00pm so they don’t even have that excuse. Turns out it’s not just the mornings that were getting to them, it’s just how they are. 

The defense, really feeling the absence of linebacker Eric Gentry, allowed the most points in a second half this year (14), compared to the previous high of 10 from the LSU game. Up to that point in the season, they had only allowed 17 points in second halves. Still, they did enough for the offense to win the game despite the turnovers and short possession times putting more pressure on them.

And yes, we can all harp on the refs again, but we can only complain about that so much. It’s not like the Pac-12 was any better with that though. Unless it’s super egregious, it usually is not looked upon well to blame refs for a loss. But if we’re going to talk about refs, did everyone see how the Gophers head coach, P.J. Fleck, gave one of the refs a nice little shove?

Do you think he wears that sweater/tie combo to make up for the fact that his name is the acronym for pajamas?

Seems suspect to me. Anyway, enough about that.

It’s year three under Lincoln Riley and it should have been better than this by now. He’s a better coach than this, but really has not shown it in many ways. That being said…

CommBro Breaker

…the Helton comparisons are really just wacko. Has everyone already forgotten how bad that really was? Do people really think they should be pulling the plug that quickly? How many truly elite coaches are even out there? One that wins against everyone they’re supposed to, never gets upset, or makes weird decisions. By the criteria that are being expected, not even the successful—or all-time greats—would qualify. 

Jim Harbaugh took like 6 years before his first win against their chief rival, Ohio State. His tenure included some random upsets, a 3-7 bowl record (including a 5 bowl losing streak before making the playoffs to extend it to 0-7), losing to unranked Michigan State (their closest UCLA equivalent) at home more than once, some mediocre seasons, and even a losing season. He eventually took them to the playoffs a few times, and even won a national championship (albeit controversially). Y’all would’ve wanted his ass fired

Then there was Kalen DeBoer, where many were ready to anoint him as the second-coming of Nick Saban post-Georgia win…right until he leads them to the upset land against unranked 2-2 Vanderbilt on the road. Even with the Georgia win, they very nearly squandered a 28 point lead.

If Nick Saban himself were the coach, we still wouldn’t be free from the delusion. He’d be criticized for hiring Sark as offensive coordinator or any of the upsets they suffered. He’d be roasted alive for the kick six, allowing their rival to win off of an ill-advised 57-yard field goal attempt. Saban had to argue to get 1 second back on the clock in order to make the attempt that was returned for a touchdown rather than opt for overtime. That decision lost 100% cost them the spot in the final BCS national championship game.

And all of these guys started with far better rosters than the aforementioned Helton stiffed Lincoln Riley with. Let’s have some perspective here, huh? No one is immune to bone-headed decisions and Riley has already made huge strides on defense. He deserves more time to prove whether or not he’s got what it takes here, especially when the NIL landscape seems to shift faster than the rules of an elementary school basketball game 30 seconds before recess ends. It might just be frustrating in the meantime. 

Uplifting Stat of the Week: Eddie Czaplicki has retaken his rightful spot at #1 in the nation in average yards per punt.

Uplifting/Depressing Stat of the Week: Despite being #28 in the nation in scoring defense (18.4 ppg), they are #108 in sacks per game (1.2 per game) and #105 in tackles for a loss (4.6 per game)

Conspiracy Continuation Stat of the Week: Miller Moss completed only 9 passes to different receivers, even if you include both the interceptions. It’s a sad week now that the streak is finally broken

Good/Badisms

Good: Woody Mark’s one-handed catch and run for a first down out of bounds to bail out Moss from what would’ve been a costly sack or incompletion and help set up Michael Lantz for his field goal.

Good: Michael Lantz sinking a career-long 54-yard field goal to tie the game at the half despite the false start setting them back after the Minnesota timeout negated the 49-yarder he made. Whew, that was long-winded. Oh yeah, and it was windy when he kicked it.

Good: Woody Marks able to take the direct snap for a touchdown

Bad: We’ve gone over most if it, but I can toss in a few more.

Bad: Missed field goal by Lantz on the first possession

Bad: Moss throwing into double coverage to Duce that led to an interception

Bad: The OL allowing Moss to be hit as he threw, resulting in an interception 

 

USC vs. Wisconsin: I’m not worried, just disappointed

Posted on by commbro

#13 USC vs. Wisconsin
September 28, 2024 at 12:40pm
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA: 74,118 (of 77,500)
Total Time: 3 hours 27 minutes

Exploiting people’s innate desire to do the opposite of what they’re told

Another week comes and goes, and USC does well enough to keep their Big Ten title and playoff hopes alive. It was their second home game, the second team they played without a real QB, and another game where they rely on dominating in the second half to try to make up for the shaky first. You’d think after the loss last week, they would clean things up and come out more motivated. At no point was I worried that USC was going to lose, but definitely expected better.

Instead, they found themselves down double digits at the end of the first half yet again. While Wisconsin is not a cellar dweller, they’ve had their struggles on offense. Even after accumulating some more long plays this past game, they are #109 in passes of 10+ yards and #123 in overall plays of 10+ yards.

Granted, both last week and this week, they made significant efforts in the second half that brought them back into the game. Maybe we just have to come to accept that they are an after 2:00 PM team. (If that’s actually true, then they will have some struggles against #7 Penn State in two weeks with another 12:30pm kickoff). 

The highlight of the issues this week are special teams struggles. Letting a punt roll all the way to the 1 yard line (along with allowing that 74-yard punt also meant letting these fools catch up to our homie Czaplicki’s punt average) really hurt the offense. Longer drives give more opportunities for mistakes—like those of the turnover variety. It took 10 plays just to get to midfield and, sure enough, the drive ended in an interception. Then there was the muffed punt, which of course led directly to a turnover on the very next punt return play. Hard to get going when the special teams continually creates negatively impactful plays like that. Average start for drives was at 24.83 for USC while Wisconsin’s was 34.75…basically a free first down of difference per drive.

Maybe next year he can use the offseason to focus on improving the special teams like he did with the defense this past offseason. To be fair though, long snapper, Hank Pepper, capitalized off of Wisconsin’s own muffed punts by securing it. That beats out what most long snappers will do over an entire season.

Sorry, this is going to be a short and uncomprehensive post. It’s already Friday and I’m barely getting this out the door. At least I’m not to the point of feeding everything through Chat GPT yet.

Good/Badisms

Good: Stopping Wisconsin on 4th down on two separate occasions, especially during the third quarter on 4th-and-1 when Wisconsin still had the lead

Bad: Undisciplined play by the offensive line like the false start on 4th-and-1 that forced a field goal try instead of going for it.

Bad: The jump by the OL that didn’t end in a penalty or lost yardage, but still negated potential free play since the defense was offsides

Good: Ja’Kobi Lane and Duce Robinson making some contested receptions for touchdowns

Good: Holding Wisconsin to 0 points in the second half

Bad: Big Ten referees don’t seem to really call holding. Coming from the Pac-12, where every minor thing gets called, seems like USC is not adjusting well. Maybe the solution is for the coaches to tell them to hold until it’s called. Stop playing Pac-12 ball and start playing Big Ten ball

Good: Dominating in time of possession (40:07 to 19:53) after trailing in TOP in the first half. Nationally, USC is #16 in time of possession per game (32:40.50)

Good: Mason Cobb grabbing the interception off a double deflection and running it back for a touchdown despite having to dodge everyone for 55-yards coming from the middle of the field 

Good/Bad: Miller Moss’ runs, one for a first down and one for a touchdown. However, it was looking like he got a concussion on the touchdown run. That’s kind of the risk you run when you run your QB.

Bad: Turning over the ball three times is going to lose you the game against a tougher opponent.

Bad: Being reminded that this video exists:

If you understand this, it means you lived in a very specific time period

It’d take looking back through about 10 years of internet history to understand it…kind of like how you’d have to look back about 10 years since Wisconsin fielded good teams. 

CommBro Breaker

I went the whole post without talking about Alex Grinch and his appearance at the Coliseum and this is the extent of what I’ll say. Much like the Utah State game, maybe it was a chance for catharsis in an indirect way.

Uplifting Stat of the Week: USC is #11 nationally in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage (26.53%)

Depressing Stat of the Week: USC is perfectly balanced on turnovers, losing 6 and gaining 6. 

Corrected Stat of the Week: I had some readers correct me on my recordkeeping from the past week. They argued that Miller Moss has continued to complete passes to 10 different receivers in every game as a starter and that there is no correlation between his secret to victory. The tenth receiver in both cases are Michigan and Wisconsin defensive backs that intercepted Moss’ passes. The 5 game streak apparently continues like clockwork.